Articles

Alzheimer’s experts predict dementia numbers to reach 1.2 million by 2040

22/01/2018

New – and frightening – research indicates that the amount of people who live with dementia in England and Wales, will dramatically rise to 1.2 million, by 2040. This is primarily because life expectancy has increased.

Campaigners warn that the Government needs to take urgent action, if they want to avoid a social care crisis. Figures show that in 2015, dementia was the cause of death in 61,000 poeple. This is a staggering 11.6% of all recorded deaths.

In England and Wales there are over 700,000 people with dementia. This is a degenerative condition of the brain which mostly affects people over 65 years of age.

The study, which was carried out by the University Colleges of London and Liverpool showed that fewer people were diagnosed with the disease, and this was partly due to the great improvements which have been made in healthcare.

Lead author in the study, Sara Ahmadi-Abhari said that a change in lifestyle habits was a contributing factor.

The study showed that while people were living longer, with survival rates for heart diseases greater, more patients would need care for dementia in the future. Dementia is now the leading cause of death in England and Wales. The second leading cause of death is ischaemic heart disease. Dementia costs the country around £23 billion a year.

The Alzheimer’s Society has predicted that by 2051, there will be 2 million people who are affected. Dr James Pickett, head of research, says that these estimates are another wake-up call that the social care system is in crisis, and requires urgent action from the Government, in order to deal with the increase in demand.

If there is any glimmer of good news, it is that the risk of developing dementia at any age has decreased, with the disease developing predominantly in later years. Dementia in younger people has, in fact decreased by 2.7% each year.

Should public health efforts be inadequate, and the declining cycle not continue, then the number of people living with the disease will reach 1.9 million by 2040.

This latest study was used from data provided by 18,000 people who took part in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. The study tracked the health of people who were aged 50 and over.

The study was carried out between 2002 and 2013, with people being randomly selected. Testing was carried out for memory, numeracy function, verbal fluency, and every-day activities, such as getting in and out of bed, dressing, and eating.

Together with information from carers, and NHS diagnosis, the assessments identified dementia.

Over the last decade, the number of people over the age of 85 has increased by 33%. This increase, combined with a lack of forward planning and cuts to essential local funding, has left a system which is far from perfect, and in chaos.

Charity Director of Age UK, Caroline Abrahams has said that there simply is not enough social care to go around. There are not enough providers, because many people do not want to work for such low wages.

Ms Abrahams went on to say that even though there are many older people needing more help, successive governments have all taken money out of social care. In fact, over the years, billion have come out of social care.

To start to improve an already dire situation, action from the government needs to be immediate, if social care services are to be of any use in the future.